Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Budget Deficit to Explode from 455 Billion to 1.6 TRILLION

I guess some records were not meant to stand the test of time. Last year's record budget deficit of $455 Billion will balloon to $1.6 Trillion this year. Although $1.6 Trillion is a big number it pails in comparison to the $11.7 Trillion that comprises our national Debt. From Yahoo News:

"The alarm bells on our nation's fiscal condition have now become a siren," Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said. "If anyone had any doubts that this burden on future generations is unsustainable, they're gone -- spending, borrowing and debt are out of control."

The title of the 2010 Budget (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/USbudget/fy10/pdf/fy10-newera.pdf) is oddly enough"A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s Promises" and it addresses the previous era of irresponsibility:

Fiscal Irresponsibility

Another manifestation of irresponsibility is
the large budget deficits we are inheriting. These
deficits, over time, will harm economic growth
and impose burdens on our children and grandchildren.
For the past eight years, in a time of economic
growth, the Government spent recklessly
on tax cuts for the few and hand-outs for the welloff
and well-connected, mismanaged billions of
dollars in taxpayer money, and failed to honor the
responsibilities we have to future generations.
Massive new programs have routinely been omitted
from the Budget to mask their true cost, while
a new entitlement program and massive tax cuts
were proposed and signed into law without any
attempt to pay for them. Between 2000 and 2008,
real Government outlays increased at a 3.6 percent
annual average rate, three times the 1.2 percent
annual average rate between 1992 and 2000.
This has helped turn a surplus of $236 billion at
the end of the Clinton Administration, that was
projected to grow still larger over time, into a deficit
of more than $1 trillion in 2009. (see Figure
12, Surpluses Have Turned to Deficits). Furthermore,
the amount of debt held by the public has
nearly doubled to $6.4 trillion from 2001 to 2008.
We are now living with the fallout of this deep fiscal
irresponsibility.
Unfortunately, we are also inheriting the worst
economic crisis since the Great Depression—
which will force us to increase deficit spending
temporarily as we try to jumpstart economic
growth. This is an extraordinary response to an
extraordinary crisis, and as we come out of this
recession, we must return to the path of fiscal responsibility.
It will mean tough choices—choices
that are tougher because of the legacy of fiscal
irresponsibility left to us.

Sounds like a plan! Wait they just said they were pretty much bankrupt and just left it at that, what's with the business with "It will mean tough choices" shouldn't it be "It means tough choices".

Let's do some quick math: The total federal budget is roughly 3.1 Trillion back out the deficit which is 1.6 Trillion and Uncle Sam has 1.5 Trillion coming in. If we did nothing else but pay down the debt it would take us 8 years to pay it off. No Military, No Jails, No Social Security, No Homeland Security and no High Speed Rail. Just the IRS and Barrack with his check book. 8 years. Of course this isn't going to happen but what about just balance the budget and revolving the debt? From Yahoo news:

But while figures released by the White House foresee a cumulative $9 trillion deficit from 2010-2019, $2 trillion more than the administration estimated in May, congressional budget analysts put the 10-year figure at a lower $7.14 trillion.

I guess not so we can add 18 trillion to the 12 trillion we owe, the logic being that we take the highest government estimate and double it and we should be pretty close to reality. Now we are in the hole for 30 Trillion.

The reason the US Government Sovereign debt rating is AAA is because the Fed will NEVER default on a payment, this is absolutely true. When the debt burden becomes so crushing and taxes can't be raised any higher without civil unrest the Fed will turn to the Treasury and Money will be created out of the ether to pay down our debt.

I hope I'm wrong but the same people who lacked the backbone and let the National Debt get to 12 trillion suddenly will not grow a spine and take care of the problem while it is still solvable (which is open to debate).

1 comment:

  1. Good choice of music. I tried to turn that one on and then read the text again, made it much better. :))

    ReplyDelete